Contrarian Betting Helps You Avoid Becoming a Sacrificial Lamb

Each Sunday there are myriad football fans who desire to increase the excitement of the game by placing a small wager. This vice, when done in moderation, can prove to be a harmless diversion. Unfortunately, for most bettors it also proves to be a costly one. Why do most bettors lose? Several factors are at play.

Firstly, all those who wager are very aware of what is called the “juice”. To the uninitiated, juice is the commission charged by the entity that accepts your wager. Most normally it is comprised of 10% tacked on to losing bets. One strategy to avoid the juice is to only place wagers that win. Good luck with that plan.

Assuming the inevitable bets that lose, there is no way to escape paying juice. Consequently, a bettor has to pick winners approximately 52.5% of the time just to break even. However, this house edge hardly accounts for the total aggregate losses suffered by sports bettors each year. If not the juice, what accounts for the lion’s share of bettor’s losses?

The house’s real weapon is your proclivity to bet on the better team. No one enjoys having to root for and depend on a lousy team in order for their bet to pay off. The experts in Vegas understand this very well. Most often, lines are constructed to make it more difficult to win betting the better team. They are completely comfortable that a slightly inflated line won’t scare away the masses who instinctively bet on the better team. The sharpies have an apt name for such bettors. Sheeple.

There is an old adage that applies as well to the sports betting not on gamstop world as it does anywhere else in life. If you can’t beat them, join them. Despite your depth of football knowledge, you can be assured you do not have greater insight than the myriad experts and sophisticated computer models that go into crafting today’s lines. Smart bettors strive to figure out which way Vegas is pushing you to bet. Then they place their wagers on the other team. When you select a wager it should be one that all your friends would say doesn’t have a chance of winning. Seeing that the crowds lose, those who go against the flow have a fighting chance.

The above described betting style is termed being “contrarian”. You should be betting contrary to the way everyone else is. Look for clues as to which game is drawing overwhelming action on one side. The one with all the “pundits” claiming a sure outcome. The one your most losing friend is staking his double up to catch up hopes on. Then go the other way. You will then have your interests allied with the truly smart parties setting the lines in Vegas. It might seem counterintuitive and difficult to adopt psychologically, but becoming a contrarian bettor this season will have you counting your winnings while your friends lick their wounds.

Henry Adams